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A roadmap will help you to assess the current workforce. You could start by doing a workforce audit to evaluate the current workforce’s skills, qualifications, demographics and roles. This will help you find areas where there are skill shortages or excess staff.

It’s important to understand service demand by analysing current demand and usage patterns. This will help to forecast future demand in your area. Using demographic data and trends to predict future service needs.

Set workforce goals by:

  • defining objectives
  • aligning workforce planning with organisational goals and service delivery requirements
  • identifying the skills and competencies required to meet service demands

Develop workforce strategies for recruiting the necessary staff to fill gaps. You could create training programmes to upskill current employees and prepare them for future roles. You could think about making sure managers are guided by data on the reasons people leave.

Implement workforce plans by developing detailed action plans for recruitment, training and retention. Resources could be allocated to support workforce initiatives.

Monitor and evaluate by:

  • continuously monitoring workforce metrics and service demands
  • making necessary adjustments to plans based on data and changing conditions

 Engage stakeholders by:

  • collaborating with internal and external stakeholders
  • including practitioners, service users, and partner organisations to ensure alignment

How to predict future social care needs

If social work organisations can forecast the social care needs of the current and future local population this will help them plan. Here are some advisory actions you can take. Use census data and local reports to understand population trends like age, gender, and socioeconomic factors. Review health statistics to identify common conditions affecting social care needs. Work with local organisations, healthcare providers, and community groups to gather insights on emerging needs.

Implement models to predict future population changes and service demands based on current data. Stay informed about government policy changes that might affect social care priorities and resources. Regularly survey community members to identify service needs and gaps. Analyse current service usage and effectiveness to find areas needing improvement or expansion. Consider local economic conditions that could influence funding and service demand.

Pay special attention to demographics in relation to:

  • ageing populations
  • people with disabilities
  • individuals with mental health needs

 Regularly review and update forecasts based on changing:

  • demographics
  • health trends
  • local housing developments
  • community feedback

Prepare for demographic changes

It’s important to meet current needs while also preparing for changes in demographics and the workforce. More people are expected to need social care over time, and many current employees are nearing retirement. This highlights the importance of recruiting and keeping qualified workers.

An increased emphasis on diversity and inclusion will help to ensure that the workforce reflects the diversity of the community. This requires recruitment strategies that promote a more inclusive workforce and provide opportunities for minority group staff to develop and progress.

The increasing use of data analytics provides an evidence base for workforce planning to be responsive to data-driven insights to inform future planning. 

Understanding the implications of demographic changes means that you will be prepared and able to prioritise your workforce planning activities. Budget changes may impact on recruitment, training and retention decisions. Understanding more about the future needs of the community and the workforce ensures you will be prepared and ready to act.

References

Bakker, A. B., Demerouti, E., & Euwema, M. C. (2005). Job resources buffer the effect of job demands on burnout. Journal of Occupational Health Psychology, 10(2). 

Skills for Care. (2021). The state of the adult social care sector and workforce in England. Leeds: Skills for Care.

Skills for Care. (n.d.). Retaining your workforce.

Spilsbury, K., Thompson, C., Bloor, K., Dale, V., Devi, R., Jackson, C., McCaughan, D., Simpson, A., & Mannion, R. (2022). Values based recruitment: What works, for whom, why, and in what circumstances? Final report of a study commissioned and funded by the Policy Research Programme, University of Leeds 

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The resources have been developed by Research in Practice in collaboration with DfE.
Published: 30 October 2024
Last updated: 04 November 2024